Insights
What’s changing in quantified risk analysis
Recent guidance, published lessons and practical how-tos on QCRA and QSRA for the people running the numbers on infrastructure and construction programmes.
- Insight5 min read
What quantified cost risk analysis actually measures
A risk register total and a QCRA-derived contingency answer different questions — one sums stated values, the other simulates a distribution of outcomes. Here is the gap, and why it matters for the number you put in front of a board.
Read the article - Insight5 min read
Total float is not the same question as schedule risk
A critical-path report tells you today's float on today's logic. A QSRA distribution tells you how likely that finish date actually is, once you let durations and risk events vary. They answer different questions — and a programme that only has the first one is flying with half the instrument panel.
Read the article - How-to6 min read
Setting contingency at P50 versus P80: what the confidence level actually buys you
Choosing a confidence level for a contingency figure is a governance decision disguised as a statistics one. Here's how to pick — and defend — a P50 or P80 figure for a board paper.
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